Reid Stockfeeds August Grain Update

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Summary

• Australian sowing season complete. Excellent soil moisture producing best start in a long-time.

• El Nino? Still uncertain.

• Weather good to great.

• Bearish Wheat Market:

    1. Europe/Russia good wheat crops
    2. US harvest underway but demand slow

• CBOT WHT FUT dropped 0.70 over late June/Early July

• Current crop market indicators for Melb/Geelong:

    1. Wheat, Old Crop @ $277
    2. Wheat, New Crop @ $280
    3. Barley, Old Crop @ $250
    4. Barley, New Crop @ $248

• Highest rainfall since 2011/12.

• GV market is seeing a price par to WD & Riverina – demand is consistent – trade flows have changed. Growers in West Vic holding grain.

Domestic

• Q3/Q4 consumers have stepped in. Trade counterparties in the market trading old and new crop grain. Domestic consumers are getting covered or are covered.

• Australian price has large spread (basis) to world pricing.

• Buy cash grain if required:

    1. Some growers selling but want higher value
    2. Barley wheat spread (currently at $23/mt)

International

• World wheat bearish stock.

• Europe/Russian crops looking very good (Russia 20% harvested):

    1. EU looks to be top wheat exporter this year
    2. Argentina sowing more wheat this year (more supply)

• US corn 75% sown (good July pollination)

• Australia looking at a 24-25 million tonne wheat crop.

Watch Out For

• Conditions look great but dry in north:

    1. Local suppliers still have high price expectations
    2. Inverse in the market, Vic $30 too expensive vs WA & SA
    3. Export business still there on West Coast/SA. Vessels on East being cancelled.

• Domestic (Eastern Seaboard) users paying under export parity from the trade and some growers.

• Supply Q3/Q4 2014 – wheat looks to be ok.

• Old crop grain prices retracted, but are firm today.

• Low price market. Will they remain low? Exercise caution?

• 4-5 months till harvest

    1. If supply from Qld/Nth NSW falls supply will come from large crops in southern NSW
    2. Soy Meal 2015 values competitive (Aus Dollar helping)

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