The 2025 growing season for the Victorian farmer has very much been a tale of two halves — what started from prolonged dry conditions at the time of planting, has materialised into a successful season.
Victoria’s 2025 winter cropping season started poorly with very dry conditions across most cropping regions. Many growers were forced to dry sow crops which increased risk and uncertainty for establishment. Soil moisture levels were often low through April and May, especially in parts of the north-west Mallee and Wimmera, which delayed early growth. The season saw warmer conditions and patchy rainfall through winter, which helped in some regions but meant uneven emergence and crop growth. Some crops fell behind their normal development schedule, and there were concerns about potential frost risk during key reproductive stages. Due to dry soil profiles and uncertain rain, many growers adjusted planting decisions — shifting areas into more drought-tolerant crops like barley and lentils, and reducing canola acreage. In addition, it was simply getting just too late to plant Wheat.
Though the start was dry, average to above-average rain in June and July across many northern and western Victoria cropping areas improved soil moisture and helped crop establishment. This boosted any early plant development in wheat and barley, which had been struggling earlier in the season. Early spring remained dry in some zones, forcing some growers tocut cereals for hay rather than let them mature for grain, especially in northern areas where grain fill risk was high. A key turning point was rainfall in October, which arrived at a crucial time during grain fill for later-sown crops. This timely rain helped lift yield potential, especially in the Wimmera and Western Districts. Fast forward to harvest and while there is still plenty left to go, the overall production is forecast to be strong — significantly better than earlier in the season predictions:
Victoria’s total winter crop production in 2025-26 is now forecast at about 9.1 million tonnes, up around 17 % on 2024-25 and above the 10-year average.
According to the December crop report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES):
Overall production is forecast to be strong — significantly better than earlier in the season predictions:
- Victoria’s total winter crop production in 2025-26 is now forecast at about 9.1 million tonnes, up around 17 % on 2024-25 and above the 10-year average.
- Wheat: ~4.0 million t, with average yields slightly above the 10-year average.
- Barley: ~2.6 million t — a solid increase, with yields well above long-term averages.
- Lentils: ~860 000 t — record or near-record production supported by increased area and good conditions.
- Canola: Slightly lower at ~1.15 million t due to smaller area planted and its higher water demand.
(ABARES and Ag, Fisheries, and Forestry Dept.)
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Author
Justin Fay
Commodity Manager
