With the grain harvest underway in QLD and large parts of NSW, by many accounts the crop looks to be performing as hoped with above average yields indicated in key growing regions.
Further South, at the time of writing, farmers in the Riverina and North Western parts of Victoria are gearing up to commence their harvest program with barley very close to being ready. The season has been challenging to say the least, impeded largely by an autumn break that failed to materialise which left growers in many parts needing to react by adjusting their cropping program.
Many cropping regions in Victoria had a dry and sporadic start to the season (autumn/early winter). Soil moisture levels were extremely low in most parts of Victoria and other southern cropping zones. Because of the dry start, many crops were dry sown and therefore depended heavily on timely rainfall to establish adequately. While there was improvement in mid-winter in some areas, the timing was later than ideal, which pushed back growth and added risk. Risks such as frost, warmer-than-average spring temperatures (which can stress crops or accelerate development too fast), were flagged as downsides.
Because of the dry conditions and soil moisture uncertainty, growers shifted crop plantings in some cases. E.g., increasing barley in favour of wheat or canola in some regions, decreasing more water-demanding crops. Yields and plantings were projected to be under pressure. For example, one report said winter crop production was expected to be 8 % lower nationally (and Victoria among the affected states) because of drought/dry conditions. (ABC). For Victoria specifically, although forecasts later improved, the yield forecasts still carried risk from the dry start and moisture deficits.
With a significant number of crops needing to be resown, growers had to account for the extra costs of fertilsers and chemical applications. The price of fertilser in its own right soared, so not only did farmers have to contend with more than one application but at a time when inputs were scarce and expensive. Ultimately, in southern regions the late start meant growers needed to be more cautious, which may have shifted profitability or changed risk profiles. Growers have responded with some shifting crop types and choosing more resilient commodities to grow such as barley, rather than higher-risk canola or wheat in certain areas. Many are adopting more data/technological-driven farming practices such as better monitoring of soil moisture, more flexible decision making and trying to adapt to the new risk profile.
Largely, the Victorian crop has been resilient under trying circumstances. While September rains were sub-standard, conditions were relatively mild which meant any amount of rain received was utilised optimally. The last week of October brought a statewide rain event that would allow crops to fill, albeit largely too late for barley but yield bolstering for wheat. While many parts of Victoria should see a decent outcome, the 2025 season for grain growers has been challenging thanks to a dry early start, low soil moisture, delayed growth, cost pressures, and increased risk. Growers have been very agile and proactive in responding to a difficult start to the season. As a result, we enter harvest with expectations that are cautiously positive, as we come to understand the effects on quality and yield.
Although export demand is low at this stage, domestic markets will still be present to respond to any varying qualities that may arise.
Source: Agriculture, Fisheries & Forestry, ABC
To increase your livestock farming gains & expert nutritional feeding advice please call 1300 REID FEED or enquire here >
Author
Justin Fay
Commodity Manager
