We saw a delayed start to the harvest of 2013/2014.
Once a few teething problems disappeared the harvest got into full swing.
Harvest is complete.
Market start factors :
The Track transfer period for January 2014 is complete,
Chinese New Year – Gong Xi Fa Cai (Year of the Horse).
Autumn break – Australia.
Harvested tonnes for wheat around Australia is expected to tally around 26.2 Million tonnes. (not confirmed).
We are seeing a lot more growers storing on farm or going direct to the customer (in higher volume).
We have seen good supply of ASW White wheat across Victoria and good supply of Red wheat in the Western districts.
Many growers will hold grain until they see rain and have confidence in the 2014 winter crop season.
Barley harvested tonnes was expected to be around 8 million tonnes.
Domestic consumers are watching the markets and buying when required.
There is supply and prices are consistent.
Q3 and Q4 of this year is the unknown territory.
All supply of grain grades available.
The export demand for Australian wheat and barley is very strong :
AUS$ price, shipping rates are reasonable and we have quality product to export.
Both bulk and export containers are maintaining good level of shipment.
Carry over stock from season 2013/2014 is limited to very low.
Trading houses are swapping shipping slots from NSW to Vic as it is cheaper.
Due to grain prices higher and stock availability.
There is a pull of stock from Southern NSW/SA into Northern NSW and QLD due to dry conditions there.
The North needs rain and until it does we will see more grain head there.
There is grain being shipped from WA to Brisbane as it works $ wise to do so.
Sorghum crops in North NSW and QLD are on the fence in terms of production currently (forecast : crop back to 1.1 million tonnes, back 38%).
Disruption of this crop is seeing grain flow from the South to North.
Things to watch :
Spread the risk of purchasing.