As we approach harvest again the Australian wheat crop forecast is estimated at around 21-22million MT for 2012/13. This is back by around 7million MT for 2011/12 and is due to the different growing season.
Domestic demand for wheat will be around 7mill MT and by the end of 2012, expected 24million MT (wheat) to be exported. With shipping stems nearly all booked for 2013 indicators are predicting a tight wheat balance sheet in the coming 12 months and the domestic consumer is competing directly with the exporters. Watch the market evolve at harvest and Q1 & Q2 2013. This will be a good indicator of price.